Windows 8 - Scoring my Predictable Predictions

Some of you, okay, two of you, might remember that I posted a semi-quasi-kinda-sorta-prediction about Windows 8, back in March of 2012 (it's almost 2013, so I didn't want to say "of this year" as it might confuse even myself).  (see "Windows 8 - What I Think About It").  I ended the post by promising to follow-up when Windows 8 was "closer to final release".

Well, I'm following up on it now:

1. I still stand behind what I posted.  That sounds bold, but it's really an easy thing to say, since I'm really standing (ok, sitting) "behind" miles of Internet circuitry, bazillions of electrons, a bunch of ISP connections, wireless signals, a million smartphones and mobile devices, and a glass of milk with some half-eaten cookies.  At least my trusty, and sleeping Beagle will protect me.
2. Today's news has been reporting that holiday sales of Windows 8 have been "disappointing".
3. Enterprise customers are still Microsoft's bread-and-butter
4. Even with some signs of hope, the Consumer market continues elude Microsoft (as compared with Google's Android eco-system, and Apple's iOS juggernaut)
5. The volume of high-profile Windows 8 migration projects appears to be non-existent.  Compared with Windows 7 (remember the impressive list of big customers announcing early adoption?  Yeah.  Not quite there with Windows 8)
6. Lastly, my statement about the "marketing stupidity" is still as valid.  The ads are still aimed at consumers, not the enterprise.  Until they can coerce the market forces to be aligned otherwise, ignoring the enterprise customer base is shooting themselves in the foot.

I'm not Mini-Microsoft, and I don't have any "inside" knowledge of what goes on out in Redmond like some other folks do.  But as an IT consultant, I see a decent cross-section of municipal, education, and business environments, at least for the scale of our local region (the largest city by population in Virginia).  And what I see doesn't look promising for Windows 8.  As bleak as that may sound, I haven't heard a peep about Office 2013, which is even bleaker.  Customers just aren't asking about it.  When Windows 7 was rolling out, all I heard was one of three things:

[A] "I like it a lot more than Windows XP!"
[B] "I've heard Windows 7 is better than Windows XP.  Should I/we upgrade?"
[C] "I/we didn't like Windows Vista, is Windows 7 really worth skipping Vista for?"

I've heard none of these comments about Windows 8 from any of my customers, and from my discussions with other local consultants and IT workers, they're not hearing it either.  It's a shame too, in some respects.  The parallels/similarities between Windows 8 and Windows Vista are almost uncanny:

• Most of the UX changes feel unnecessary from a functional aspect.  Some aspects are nice, like the "metro" theme motif itself, but the tiled UI on a desktop or laptop is just not happening for most users.  Even if you happen to disagree with that, it's hard to argue that there shouldn't be at least the option to continue using the traditional Start Menu design.  The astounding number of downloads of third-party add-ons to do just that should be enough to warrant a second consideration.
• Some features seem more difficult to access (shutdown, restart, Windows Update, etc.) as compared to the previous version.  With Vista it was that whole Network Neighborhood shuffle.
• The "classic" UI fallback is either crippled or non-existent, opening the door for third-party solutions (Stardock, ClassicShell, etc.) which is a concern for managing a taller "stack" for enterprise deployments.  Many (actually most) enterprise environments I've seen skipped Vista entirely, instead focusing on migrating from XP to Windows 7.  That incurred hardware upgrades, and at least some targeted education of their users, officially (intranet how-to's, e-mails, etc.), or otherwise (ad hoc, over-the-shoulder training).

The solutions to these challenges are already posted to death across the Internet, so I 'm not about to regurgitate yet another spin on all that.  Just read Paul Thurrott's thoughts on it, he's pretty much spot on (I recommend reading the other related "Fixing Windows 8" posts on his site as well).

So, getting more to the point: How would I score my hit-list of predicted fixes for Windows 8?  Let me enumerate thy ways:

1. A "Windows 7 Classic" theme, that looks EXACTLY like Windows 7.  For businesses to roll-out onto their already shell-chocked XP-to-7 users.  Then we can shift to Metro later when the Xanax runs out.  
   Score: A+ / Start8 by Stardock, ClassicShell, and other add-ons appear to be flying off the virtual shelves as users look for ways to restore their Start Menu comfort zone.
2. A native App-V client included in the base product.  App-V is cool, but I'm really sick of how hamstrung it is within MDOP and EA/SELECT and it's really holding back a lot of potential.  Sick isn't the word.  Disgusted is more like it.  Score: C- / The XAML (Metro/Tile) application model is a half-way solution to the portability aspect of App-Virtualization models. Nothing has really opened up as far as the App-V/MDOP licensing constraints are concerned, but XAML shows promise for future cross-(Microsoft-based)-platform development.
3. A native MED-V feature as an option.  My feeling is the same as described for App-V.  
   Score: B / While Embedded XP has kind of been forgotten, at least Microsoft took the rather bold move to offer Hyper-V 3.0 for client devices.  It still lags behind VMware for desktop Virtualization in some respects, but it's still a good move.  Competition is good for the customer (hence VMware Workstation 9's somewhat hurried release).
4. A better approach to COM activation than DCOMconfig.  
   Score: F / No change.
5. A better solution to keep the Registry clean.
   Score: F / No (significant) change.

Personally, I feel Microsoft has an easy "out" right now.  They can accept credit for what customers end up favoring, while assigning blame on Stephen Sinofsky for whatever they dislike.  Either way, it's what a Politician would call a "win-win" situation.  Maybe they can repeat the lesson's learned from Windows Vista when pushing ahead with Windows 7:  Mop up the challenges in Windows 9.  Maybe.  There is no crystal ball, so no one really knows.

If Microsoft had a crystal ball, they would name it "Microsoft System Center Crystal Spheroidal Prediction Device 2012 Ultimate Enterprise Edition".  Geez.  I crack myself up. How pathetic.

And there you have it: Another dose of my completely useless, mind-numbing stupidity, shrink-wrapped and stamped with a scratch-n-sniff label that says "Check this out!".

Merry Christmas!

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Another Book Announcement!

My new book is on the conveyor belt inside the Amazon factory, heading for a Kindle store near you. In fact, I was notified just this morning that it's available right now!  Yeee-Haaa!  Just in time for Christmas or Kwanzaa!  A bit late for Hanukkah though, oye.

Why Your Next IT Project Will Fail
(and what you can do to avoid it)

So, what's in this bundle of joy?  Here's the book description that I typed up while on Cold medicine, you'll have to excuse the typo's (if any)...

Why do Projects fail? More specifically: Why do IT Projects fail?  Is there a common thread or pattern that exists among failed IT Projects? Is it predominantly a failure of technology; of people; or a failure of both?  Are there warning signs that make it easy to spot the causes before they become problems, with sufficient time to correct them? Are there steps that can be taken to correct the problem once it's begun?  Are there strategies that can help prevent these potential issues from occurring again?

These are some of the questions I address, one by one.  For each potential cause, I offer a list of warning signs, corrective actions, and some straightforward suggestions for preventing them from arising in the future.  The goal of this is to help you keep your IT projects on track, keep your project team focused, and develop the strategies for making future projects more likely to succeed.

If you're still awake (hello?), you may be thinking, "Holy crap! This could lead to the cure for Cancer, or world hunger! How much will this miraculous piece of literature cost me?".  Maybe you blurted it out loud and scared your dog or cat out of the room.

$4.99 USD is the selling price (the price is automatically converted for other countries by Amazon, not by me).  Billy Mays would be flipping out right now.  A possible cure for world hunger for only $4.99?!  No way!  Way!

Merry Christmas! and Happy Holidays! - to you, your family and friends!

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Books and More Books, and More

First things first: to everyone who has purchased one of my books: THANK YOU!

I mean that sincerely. This month I received the largest payment yet, and it actually made it possible for me to fill my gas tank and buy a few Christmas gifts for our kids. I won't say how much, but it's in the low three digits.

The amount isn't really important. What is important, and what really surprised me are the facts that (A) people actually wanted to buy something I wrote, and (B) I haven't received any death threats yet. So, once again: Thank You!

And now for another announcement: I have another book on the way. It's related to computer technology, but also a little business stuff tossed in. Before you start choking on your lunch, I assure you I know very little about computers, and almost nothing at all about business, so you can relax. The working title should give it away, so I won't explain it any further at this point...

"Why Your Next IT Project Will Fail (and what you can do to avoid it)"

I'm hoping to publish it before the holidays, but its getting really close. I will keep you posted.

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Who is Ralph Grabowski? And Why CAD Pro's Should Read His Stuff

Ralph Grabowski has been writing about the world of engineering-related and design-related software for quite a long time.  And that world has continued to grow and evolve without slowing down.

When I started working in the "design" field, it was 1984.  The predominant technology of the time was a wooden board covered with a plastic-film graph paper, a cable-mounted "drafting machine", and a stack of stencils and templates.  The medium was one of the following:  Tracing paper, Sepia, or Mylar.  The instrumentation was usually a mechanical pencil with either an H-series graphite lead, or (more often) plastic "lead" of either E0, or E1 grade.

In 1985 that relatively arcane world started to fade away at a steady pace, and a new breed of computers and software began taking its place.  First were the mainframe systems, like Autotrol and CADAM.  Then came a few more, like Computervision, UniGraphics, Pro/Engineer, and Intergraph.  Then wallets started to evaporate.  The cost for mainframe, and later the more compact "workstation" packages, was astronomical. As in: you'd need an observatory telescope to see the end of the price tag.  It was scary.

Renegade companies, with dreams of producing cheaper alternatives on the newer (and more affordable) MS-DOS PC-platform, started springing up, with names like GenericCAD, DesignCAD, Autodesk, FastCAD, Drafix, This-CAD and That-CAD, and too many others to recall now.  Some survived for a while, some died out, and a few remained and exist to this day.  And through a big portion of this timeline, most of it actually, there have been a few journalists who've tried to get a handle on just what this "CAD/CAM" and "CAD/CAM/CAE" stuff was all about, and more importantly: Where it was all going.

One of them has been, and still is, Ralph Grabowski.  His newsletter, upFront.eZine, has been cranking out in-depth reviews, interviews, news, and events for as long as I can remember.  A mix of web-content and e-mailed content, it is an enormously valuable resource for engineers, designers, managers, software developers, start-up visionaries, and anyone just plain curious about this unique segment of the technology world.

Although my personal and professional involvement with the design world somewhat ended a few years back, I'm still tied to parts of it by way of my role as an IT consultant.  I still package and deploy CAD products for various environments, and I still get called in to consult and work with FlexLM and FlexNet implementations.  For that reason alone, I still read the upFront.eZine newsletter to stay current with what's going on.

For continuing to push forward and keep us all clued-in:  Thank you Ralph!

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Big Announcement: Book Promotion Event

To honor this past week's Autodesk University 2012, I am making my e-book "The AutoCAD Network Administrator's Bible, 2013 Edition" available for FREE for ONE DAY ONLY!

That's right. You heard (or read) correctly.  On Monday, December 3, 2012 only, you can download the e-book for free and read it on your Kindle, Kindle Fire, Kindle Reader App (on iPhone, Android, Blackberry or whatever) or read it online using the Kindle Cloud Reader.  Choices, people. You have choices.  It's mind-bottling.  So, as the Marines would say: "Get Some!".... Enjoy!

UPDATE: I received some clarification from Amazon regarding the time "window" for this promotion. According to Amazon, it should begin at "approximately" 12:00 am Pacific Standard Time, and should end at approximately 11:59 pm Pacific Standard Time.

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Dear CEO's: Be Careful with that Cloud PR Stuff

Jimmy Bergmark posted an interesting item on Google Plus about some quotes from Autodesk CEO Carl Bass regarding the future of Cloud services.  The quotes were posted on Ralph Grabowski's World CAD Access web site...

"There are a lot of applications that will [still] be done on the desktop. Whether Autodesk does it or not, I can't think of a single function that won't necessarily be done in the cloud." - Carl Bass, CEO of Autodesk

As Jimmy commented...

Asked whether there was some resistance by Autodesk users to make the move as fast as the company is making the switch he said that people are already living in the cloud with their personal applications and that there are somewhat different issues for them.

"Foremost in people's mind is security, privacy, reliability, confidential information. Some of those concerns will fall by the wayside."

Here's the rub I have with folks like Carl (not with Jimmy, he's a genius):  When it comes to Public Relations (aka "PR") these guys are making a HUUUUUUUUUUGE mistake and it is already having a detrimental impact on their business.  Let me itemize, if I may...

1. Understand the difference between a PUBLIC Cloud and a PRIVATE Cloud!
   
   I'm not going to spoon-feed you here.  That's what Google and Bing are for.  But, when the CEO doesn't understand how f***ing important this distinction really is, how can anyone beneath them fully grasp the importance of it as well?
   
2. Be prepared to explain that difference to your customers
   
   Every single time a CEO/CIO/CTO/CxO opens their mouth and says with a smile "We're going to the cloud!  Come along with us!" it scares the living shit out of their customers.  Why?  Because they translate that directly into the following:
   
   A. The products are moving into a Public Cloud platform
   B. Customer data is going to move into someone else's sandbox
   C. Customers will lose at some control (possibly even intellectual property rights) over their content
   D. More points of failure will be inserted between the Cloud point and the customer point
   E. The more points inserted in the middle, the more likely potentially interrupting business operations
   
   Rather than saying "Cloud", make damned sure you elaborate on what your vision and execution plans are for both Cloud types.  Reassure your skiddish customers that they will have an option to retain all the control over their operations and content that they currently have, while having the additional (potential) benefit of leveraging the Public Cloud for (possible) cost savings.
   
3. Make SURE your products are fully-aligned with both Cloud platforms
   
   A lot of products are being shoe-horned and relabeled to become "Cloud" products/services.  IT administrators and power users can smell that a mile away.  Don't assume your customers are idiots, that's a dangerous place to go.  This is especially true for larger customers (enterprise-level corporate shops, the kind that tend to buy subscription pricing contracts to leverage volume discounts).
   
   If you (Mr./Ms. CEO) are sincere about pursuing Cloud services, on both Public and Private environments, break out your cattle prod and put the fear of God into your chain of command to insure they design, and execute, a strategy that natively works in a real Cloud environment on both environments (public and private).
   
   If you really don't intend to support Private clouds, don't fake it.  But also be prepared for a tougher hill to climb when it comes to winning over big-shop customers.

I'm sure all the CEO's of the world read my blog and will take this to heart.  So by the time you've read this, all will be corrected and working fine.

P.S.  Follow Jimmy Bergmark at JTB World.  Follow Ralph Grabowski at UpFront eZine, and World CAD Access

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Writing for 4Sysops.com

I may have mentioned it before, but I've accepted an offer to write articles for 4Sysops.com.  So far, I've submitted two multi-part articles:

• SCCM Right-Click Tools - Part 1
• SCCM Right-Click Tools - Part 2
• SCCM Right-Click Tools - Part 3
• Configuration Manager - The Evolution of Security - Part 1 (coming soon)
• Configuration Manager - The Evolution of Security - Part 2 (coming soon)

You may be wondering (all three of you who read my blog) what impact this may have on this blog.  Or maybe that question never crossed your mind.  That's ok, I'll pretend you were wondering about this and I will pretend to address your pretend concerns.  Mmmkay? :)

First, I will continue to post things here on this blog.  Things I find interesting and, hopefully, you find interesting as well.  I will at least shoot for "peculiar" if I can't attain "interesting", but either way, I will do my best to entertain whilst shoveling loads of techno-babble into your eyeballs.

Second, 4Sysops.com will get first dibs on upcoming topics.  That way I don't create any conflicts with our agreement.  Contracts matter, after all.  Most of what I submit to 4Sysops.com will be purely technical in nature.  Most of what I post here will be a mix of technical and philosophy, with a pinch of stale humor thrown in.

Third, I really don't have a third.  But I will try to avoid confusing readers and do my best to cross-reference things so it doesn't become a chore to access content on either site.  I hope this works for everyone.  After all, trying to please everyone always works well.

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